We study the Bayesian fixed-budget best-arm identification problem in which a learner can abstain from making a terminal recommendation. Subject to an abstention budget $α$, we analyze the probability of undetected error--the risk of recommending a suboptimal arm without abstaining. Our central finding is that abstention induces a phase transition: without abstention, the error probability decays polynomially in the sampling budget $T$; in contrast, introducing any small positive abstention budget shifts this to an exponential decay. For Gaussian priors and rewards, in the regime $T\to\infty$ followed by $α\downarrow0$, we establish exact matching information-theoretic lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds on the optimal error exponent, which takes the form $\exp(-\frac{α^{2}T}{8κ_ν^{2}})$. The hardness parameter $κ_ν$ represents the prior density of the top-two gap at zero, highlighting that nearly tied instances drive the fundamental error. We introduce an adaptive algorithm, PGWS, that successfully achieves this optimal exponent by expending its abstention budget on statistically ambiguous instances. We further demonstrate that this polynomial-to-exponential improvement is exclusively a Bayesian phenomenon--in the frequentist setting, abstention only affects lower-order exponent terms. We also extend our results beyond the Gaussian model.

Quantum noise constitutes a fundamental obstacle to realizing practical quantum technologies. To address the pivotal challenge of identifying quantum systems least affected by noise, we introduce the purest quantum state identification, which can be used to improve the accuracy of quantum computation and communication. We formulate a rigorous paradigm for identifying the purest quantum state among K unknown n-qubit quantum states using total N quantum state copies.

Active seriation aims at recovering an unknown ordering of nitems by adaptively querying pairwise similarities. The observations are noisy measurements of entries of an underlying n npermuted Robinson matrix, whose permutation encodes the latent ordering. The framework allows the algorithm to start with partial information on the latent ordering, including seriation from scratch as a special case. We propose an active seriation algorithm that provably recovers the latent ordering with high probability. Under a uniform separation condition on the similarity matrix, optimal performance guarantees are established, both in terms of the probability of error and the number of observations required for successful recovery.

Boosting methods often achieve excellent classification accuracy, but can experience notable performance degradation in the presence of label noise. Existing robust methods for boosting provide theoretical robustness guarantees for certain types of label noise, and can exhibit only moderate performance degradation. However, previous theoretical results do not account for realistic types of noise and finite training sizes, and existing robust methods can provide unsatisfactory accuracies, even without noise. This paper presents methods for robust minimax boosting (RMBoost) that minimize worst-case error probabilities and are robust to general types of label noise. In addition, we provide finite-sample performance guarantees for RMBoost with respect to the error obtained without noise and with respect to the best possible error (Bayes risk). The experimental results corroborate that RMBoost is not only resilient to label noise but can also provide strong classification accuracy.

Linear structural causal models (SCMs) are used to analyze the relationships between random variables. Directed edges represent direct causal effects and bidirected edges represent hidden confounders. Generically identifying the causal parameters from observed correlations between the random variables is an open problem in causality.

Supervised learning relies on high-quality labeled data, but obtaining such data through human annotation is both expensive and time-consuming. Recent work explores using large language models (LLMs) for annotation, but LLM-generated labels still fall short of human-level quality. To address this problem, we propose the Annotation with Critical Thinking (ACT) data pipeline, where LLMs serve not only as annotators but also as judges to critically identify potential errors. Human effort is then directed towards reviewing only the most "suspicious" cases, significantly improving the human annotation efficiency. Our major contributions are as follows: (1) ACT is applicable to a wide range of domains, including natural language processing (NLP), computer vision (CV), and multimodal understanding, by leveraging multimodal-LLMs (MLLMs).

Financial statement auditing is conducted under a risk-based evidence approach to obtain reasonable assurance. In practice, auditors often perform additional sampling or related procedures when an initial sample does not provide a sufficient basis for a conclusion. Across jurisdictions, current standards and practice manuals acknowledge such extensions, while the statistical design of sequential audit procedures has not been fully explored. This study formulates audit sampling with additional, sequentially collected items as a sequential testing problem for a finite population under sampling without replacement. We define null and alternative hypotheses in terms of a tolerable deviation rate, specify stopping and decision rules, and formulate exact sequential boundary conditions in terms of finite-population error probabilities. For practical implementation, we calibrate those boundaries by Monte Carlo simulation at least-favorable deviation rates. The exact design yields ex ante control of decision error probabilities, and the simulation-based implementation approximates that design while allowing the computation of expected stopping times. The framework is most naturally suited to attribute auditing and deviation-rate auditing, especially tests of controls, and it can be extended to one-sided, two-stage, and truncated designs.

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